Election night 2024 was rough for a lot of people. One of them was Allan Lichtman.
The American University professor confidently predicted in September that Kamala Harris would win. On a livestream last night, as the enormity of Donald Trump’s eventual victory became clearer around midnight, Lichtman appeared to try to put on a brave face about why his “keys”—the 13 questions he believed would determine the next commander in chief—weren’t turning the way he had declared they would. Around 40,000 people were watching as Lichtman kept talking about waiting for “provisionals” to be counted, until it became obvious that there weren’t enough votes left for Harris to win in the so-called “blue wall” states.
That thrashing followed a groundswell of criticism about Lichtman’s predictions, his record, and his methodology. He engaged in a monthslong feud with Nate Silver that, improbably, stretched until Tuesday.
I emailed Lichtman this morning to see if he wanted to talk about what he thinks went wrong. He thanked me and declined. “Thanks Andrew,” he wrote. “But I am going to take some time off to assess why I was wrong and what the future holds for the country.”
Andrew Beaujon joined Washingtonian in late 2014. He was previously with the Poynter Institute, TBD.com, and Washington City Paper. He lives in Del Ray.
