The Washington Commanders’ wild win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday triggered a fun piece of sports lore: As the sports researcher Steve Hirdt noted in 2000, the incumbent party usually wins the presidency when Washington’s football team wins its last home game before an election. A Reddit user posted an elaborate theory of the case Sunday evening that, at the very least, is a good read.
Now: Time for a few caveats. The “rule” was only discovered 24 years ago. And the term rule is a bit grand for this idea: Hirdt had to iterate it after the team lost to Green Bay in 2004 but George W. Bush won a second term anyway. As Hirdt explained to ESPN, when the winner of the popular vote doesn’t win the presidency, as happened to Al Gore in 2000, the rule somehow inverts how it works.
(Before you email me to express your dismay about the name Commanders, please note: 1) No one from the team solicited my thoughts on a new name; 2) If they had I would have suggested the Washington Department of Football instead; 3) the team was known as the Boston Braves at one point, so perhaps let’s all strive for some perspective and grace on a Monday morning?)
Mental gymnastics aside, there is a bit of a historical record that buttresses the “rule.” It had an uncomplicated run from 1936-2008. As the economist Neil Malhotra told my coworker Patrick Hruby in 2012, it’s not inconceivable that this type of correlation—there are others, including college football home-team victories—could have a minor effect on voters by lifting their moods, and in an election that’s reportedly very close, perhaps a vibe shift could make a difference. Washingtonian‘s mood was indeed lifted by the team’s victory, so we feel confident to make the following prediction: Following the Commanders’ win on Sunday, Kamala Harris will absolutely win DC’s three electoral votes on November 5.
Andrew Beaujon joined Washingtonian in late 2014. He was previously with the Poynter Institute, TBD.com, and Washington City Paper. He lives in Del Ray.
